Table of Contents
Welcome back to my Marvel Rivals Competitive Meta Analysis series! If you missed the first report, get caught up here. There’s a lot of meta trends to discuss, so let’s dive in.
In this series, I’ll examine and analyze week-over-week shifts in the Rivals Competitive meta across the entire roster, all ranks, and all platforms. I’ll discuss trends and identify opportunities for heroes that may be positioned to outperform relative to the rest of the roster.
How are heroes scored and weighted?
My analysis uses a simple weighted scoring system to evaluate hero performance. Data is centralized and snapshotted from multiple third-party tools. Win rate, pick rate, and ban rate are locked in for each hero at the start of the week, then again after seven days have passed. I then examine the shifts in performance and pass everything through a weighted scoring system.
After the first week, we made some tweaks to the weighted scoring model to reward win rate a lot more, and punish ban rate a lot less. Pick rate also has half the weighting it did in the first week. The updated formula is as follows:
Old Hero Rankings Weighted Scoring = (3x win rate) + (1x pick rate) - (1x ban rate)
Hero Rankings Weighted Scoring = (8.5x win rate) + (1x pick rate) - (0.5x ban rate)
The idea is simple. Win rate should be the most significant factor in ranking heroes. Pick rate is evaluated and factored in. How often players are picking certain heroes can be indicative of power or at least preference.
Why is ban rate penalized in the weighted scoring model? Aren’t heroes that are being banned more frequently more likely to be OP?
Ban rate can be a decent proxy for power level—or at least annoyance to play against. Unfortunately, it also works against you when selecting which characters to play and specialize in competitive. There is an opportunity cost to picking, practicing, and playing a character that is likely to get banned. In general, the more you play on a hero, the more you can expect to improve and for those improvements to be represented in your overall win rate with a hero. If you are unable to play your main over a third of competitive games you play, you are potentially hamstringing your performance and practice time with improving and mastering those heroes.
Another thing to note is that ban rate effectively reduces the pick rate of heroes. While a banned hero would not always have been picked for play in a game, the higher the ban rate, the more likely it is that a player who wants to cannot play that character in a match. Therefore, I’ve factored in a penalty for ban rate in my weighted scoring model. The lower the ban rate, the lower the penalty. Ban rate penalty currently represents 5% of a character’s weighted score.
Movers & Shakers
No adjustments were made to the Movers & Shakers weighted scoring formula from week one to two.
This weighted scoring system looks at the change or delta (Δ) between the current week's data and the previous week's snapshot. This gives us a good trend of how heroes progress and allows us to identify the biggest winners and losers of the week. In this category, heroes who are winning more, being picked more, and being banned less will receive more of a lift. Heroes who are performing worse week over week will be ranked lower in this list.
The scoring system weights for this category must be different from base rankings. Hero win rates remain relatively stable week to week without a balance patch, but pick rates vary drastically as the meta evolves. Using the same weighted system for rankings would result in scores being almost entirely driven by changes to pick rate alone, which paints a severely skewed and flawed glimpse of actual performance.
Movers & Shakers Weighted Scoring = (20x Δwin rate) + (2x Δpick rate) - (3x Δban rate)
Once Mover & Shaker values are created, I run a z-score analysis to determine how many standard deviations (σ) each data point is from the mean of the set to look for statistical outliers and put everything on a comparable scale for analysis. This helps with machine learning and data smoothing/reliability over time.
The limitations of weighted scoring systems
With the amount of data to gather, compile, calculate, and analyze, it would require substantial effort to segment everything into different Elo brackets for ranked play. To overcome this limitation, I’ll provide callouts in my analysis for certain heroes who are performing well in various competitive rankings. For example, Hela is arguably the best DPS character in the game in Celestial+ lobbies, but is much less frightening in the hands of a Silver player. Less than 8% of the player base is competing in Celestial+ lobbies anyway, so an overall view of the competitive landscape and all its rankings is by default normalized across the entire distribution of the player base.
Improving the model over time
With community and pro feedback, I’ll improve the weighted scoring system over time. It’s likely this is not the optimal form, but it does give a good baseline to compare data over time and early shifts in the Marvel Rivals Season Two Meta. Any additional changes to the weighted scoring system will be called out in future articles in the series.
Note on Team-ups: Due to the nature of some third-party data capture tools, some Team-Ups that involve more than two characters are split into individual pairs while others are captured by the full set. This creates some issues with data accuracy, which I’ll work to smooth out in future articles in the series through my own tooling and possible improvements in third-party tools.
Marvel Rivals Hero Rankings (Weighted Scoring) Top 5 - 4/25/25
Rocket Raccoon
Rocket Raccoon has been making a huge impact in the competitive meta since his rework at the start of season two and has quickly climbed to secure the top hero ranking slot of in the meta. Rocket’s overall win rate sits at 54.25% for the week, with his pick rate climbing slightly to 45.67% and ban rate dropping to 2.24%. Rocket is notable for a low skill floor and has quickly distinguished himself as the premium strategist pick for the early season.
Rocket’s week-over-week movement was minimal. His overall win rate decreased by 1% from last week, his pick rate improved by 1%, and his ban rate decreased by 32%. With minimal movement week to week in the early meta, it’s clear that Rocket is still a great addition to almost any team composition. Interestingly, both his team-ups: Ammo Overload with Punisher and Planet X Pals with Groot produce slightly lower win rates than his blended win rate across all ranks, not entirely surprising given the drastic gap in win rates between Rocket and these other hero picks.
Mister Fantastic
Mister Fantastic was a notable hero I flagged last week as well and clearly has some staying power. He is still winning 53.74% of games, is being picked in 14.83%, and his ban rate increased to 1.22%. With the prominence of dive-based compositions, Mister Fantastic is a reasonable foil to the opposition and can complement many different play styles as a scrappy frontline brawler. Mister Fantastic’s Flexible Elongation ability allows him to quickly peel and shield allies on the backline, or jump forward to damage an escaping diver or quickly join the frontline of battle with the Vanguards. As such a versatile and powerful option, it’s no wonder that he is excelling early in the season across nearly all ranks.
Week-over-week, Mister Fantastic’s win rate decreased by 2%, his pick rate increased by 22%, and his ban rate increased 74%. He is still a great and consistent pick and seems to be excelling in the duelist role to augment a variety of comps. With the Invisible Woman team up, his overall win rate increases modestly to 55.40%.
Emma Frost
Previously the number one on our list, Emma Frost maintains her place in the top five list in third place this week. Her win rate appears relatively stable and has climbed modestly to 50.11%, her pick rate has decreased to 46.56%, and her ban rate has increased to 6.35%. As a solid frontline option, Emma excels in dealing high damage in the frontline and dealing with a variety of threats. Data indicates that she performs better with a second tank on the team. Interestingly, Emma has been struggling against Iron Fist and Magik, posting some of the largest differentials in win rate compared to her overall blended win rate. Emma is struggling more against these two characters who play to her preferred range than she is against Iron Man and Human Torch who she has very few ways of interacting with during a match.
Week-over-week, Emma’s win rate has remained static, her pick rate has decreased by 25%, and her ban rate has increased by 13%. As I noted last week, I expect her pick rate to continue to fall as the luster wears off and players are not as eager to play the new hero. But reading between the lines and examining the data, it’s clear Emma Frost has potential for staying power in the meta and has tons of carry potential in the right hands.
Storm
Storm is a hero that has been flying under the radar for some time and has been vastly under-represented in pick rate compared to her consistently high win rate and impact in ranked play. Since her season one buffs, Storm has enjoyed a high win rate with a pick rate that has clearly lagged her performance and impact. This week, Storm has achieved a 54.4% win rate, an abysmal 4.76% pick rate, and a ban rate of only 0.50%. With a good vantage point and aerial cover, Storm can switch between peeling and providing overwatch protection to the backline and pressing forward and pressuring the opposing team from range. Storm is clearly underutilized based on her performance and is a hero to consider for inclusion in your personal hero pool.
Week-over-week, Storm maintained a constant win rate, an 11% increase in pick rate, and a 37% drop in ban rate. More players are seeing the latent potential of Storm, but I’m surprised that her pick rate remains so low. One thing to note is that despite the power of Storm in combination with Human Torch, one glaring weakness of the composition is less bodies to contest the objective. Flying characters perform much better from afar and must allow the rest of their team to take and defend the objective in most cases. Yet the data still shows that Storm, Iron man, and Human Torch are still winning games.
Magik
Dive is performing well, and Magik can be a menace across all ranks. Magik maintains a 52.80% win rate for the week, a 14.94% pick rate, and a 2.5% ban rate. When paired with characters like Captain America, Iron Fist, and Black Panther, Magik can cleave a cruel path through the opposing backline and quickly secure picks. Magik’s overall win rate decreased slightly, but she remains an increasingly popular Duelist pick in the current meta.
Week-over-week, her overall win rate decreased by 1%, her pick rate increased by 14%, and her ban rate fell 7%. Clearly, Magik is still a strong performer in the duelist role and is a hero to watch. As the meta attempts to adapt to dive and new strategies are uncovered or favored, it will be interesting to see how Magik’s metrics are affected. She will be a reasonable bellwether for how the meta is responding against or favoring dive.
The Hero Ranking (Weighted Scoring) Watchlist
Right now, Bruce Banner, Groot, Spider-Man, Hulk, Namor, and Iron Fist, and Human Torch are all being banned in more than 10% of their matches. Heroes on this watch list got significant lift given that ban rates are penalized much less in the updated weighted scoring formula. We will continue to watch these heroes and ensure the weighted scoring algorithm improves over time to accurately reflect power level.
Marvel Rivals Hero Movers & Shakers Top 5 Winners - 4/25/25
Wolverine
Wolverine was the biggest winner of the week in terms of weekly metric shifts. This was likely the result of players completing the seasonal event quest that required them to play Wolverine. As we see this week in the data with Black Panther, it’s clear that players are using competitive mode to play with these characters and complete their quests—even without the relevant experience on the character to match the previous weekly win rate. This week, as Wolverine’s play time shifted back toward players who are accustomed to the character, Wolverine experienced a 4% increase in his week-over-week win rate, a 4% higher pick rate, and a 45% decrease in ban rate. While he’s clearly not the Vanguard-slaying menace he once was, Wolverine still appears to be a reasonable pick in some metas.
Adam Warlock
Adam Warlock primarily benefited from a ban rate that dropped by over 66% week over week, even after a 55% ban rate decrease in week one. Adam is not in a great place by himself, but his Guardian Revival team-up has climbed to the highest win rate of all the team-ups at 63.52% and the top team-up with our weighted scoring algorithm. Adam enjoyed a 1% increase in win rate and pick rate this week. With the team up with Mantis and Star-Lord, Adam remains an incredibly strong selection even post-nerf.
Winter Soldier
Winter Soldier was over-tuned in Season One and received a number of nerfs. Early in week one, his win rate decreased drastically, but has slowly risen over the second week of the season. Compared to last week, Winter Soldier’s win rate increased by another 1%, his pick rate dropped by 13%, and his overall ban rate dropped by a whopping 73%. Our weighted scoring system flagged him as one of the biggest winners of the week after the first and second weeks of the season. And while there’s no arguing that he has been dethroned as a top-tier DPS option, it will be interesting to see how he will evolve over the remainder of Hellfire Gala.
The new team-up isn’t great… It’s clunky and unintuitive, and I’d really like to see some improvements made to functionality. As exciting and thematic as the team-up should be, this one has been a big letdown. Data suggests that players are learning to use the team up better compared to the first week of the season. Overall win rate is up slightly, and the team-up is now enjoying a higher win rate than Captain America’s blended win rate, which wasn’t the case in week one.
Doctor Strange
Doctor Strange has been hit by a number of nerfs to his survivability and damage, and is in a lower spot than ever, but still remains a reasonable Vanguard pick. His portal’s utility is still excellent and can allow for a Hail Mary play to contest the objective after a lost team fight that would otherwise end the game. As a Vanguard main myself, this remains one of the only use cases I’ll use for the hero in season two.
Doctor Strange’s week-over-week win rate was constant, his pick rate increased by 1%, and his ban rate decreased by 56%. With relatively stable performance and a large decrease in ban rate, Doctor Strange was still one of the biggest week-over-week winners on our list.
Hawkeye
Hawkeye had a rough week in terms of performance, losing ground and experiencing a 1% decrease in win rate. His pick rate was up 3%, and his overall ban rate fell significantly by 54%. Hawkeye was lifted by the large decrease in ban rate, though remains a niche and underperforming pick overall. Despite the gains this week due to a sharply declining ban rate, Hawkeye remains a skill-intensive character and underperforms in lower elo.
Marvel Rivals Hero Movers & Shakers Top 5 Losers - 4/25/25
Human Torch
Human Torch is a much stronger character in season two compared to season one and has been performing quite well with the new buffs for two weeks in a row. His win rate is sitting at 50.66% and has decreased by 1% over the past week. But players are also taking notice. His pick rate is up 30% this week in games, and his ban rate week-over-week increased a whopping 178%, even after a 109% increase last week, flagging Human Torch as the biggest week-over-week loser due to less playability.
Z-score analysis flagged his weekly changes as a statistical anomaly for the second week in a row, and I’d expect things to stabilize over time. Just because he is the biggest loser of the week doesn’t make him a weak character, not by a long shot. Notably, his team-ups with Storm and Invisible Woman are overperforming and represent a large opportunity in the current meta.
Iron Fist
Iron Fist was a statistical anomaly in my Z-score analysis for the second week in a row. This is another example of a character that was tuned up and is performing well, but was punished by a drastic increase in ban rate (up 113% for the week, even after an 85% week-over-week increase in the first week of the season).
Iron Fist is still winning 51.08% of games and remains a powerful addition to a well-rounded dive composition. Iron-fist’s win rate dropped by 1% week-over-week, and his pick rate increased by another 7%. His ban rate is now up to a staggering 17.44%, which is a huge increase from season one and the start of season two. While a strong character overall, Iron Fist was one of the largest week-over-week losers with our weighted scoring system.
Mister Fantastic
As more players flocked to Mister Fantastic, his overall win rate dropped another 2% for the week, representing a 4% decrease from the start of the season. He was picked 22% more this week, and his ban rate increased by another 74%. Despite incredibly strong top-line stats (53.74% win rate, 14.83% pick rate, and 1.22% ban rate), he suffered this week.
I expect Mister Fantastic to remain a strong option going forward, so this is likely a temporary drag on week-over-week performance as things stabilize.
Iron Man
Iron Man was brought down this week by a 66% increase in ban rate. Still, players are banning Bruce Banner much more often than Iron Man, and his increase in lethality is tied closely to the option of running both a Gamma-infused Iron Man and Namor on the same team. Iron Man’s week-over-week performance also resulted in a 2% drop in win rate, 20% boost to pick rate. With a 52.93% win rate and a staggering 60.22% win rate when Gamma-infused, Iron Man will be a character to watch this season.
Captain America
Captain America is in a very strong place after two seasons of back-to-back buffs. With extra health and damage this season and the prominence of dive, Captain America is a strong Vanguard selection. Cap’s win rate for the week was 52.82%, with a 12.64% pick rate and 1.78% ban rate. This week, Cap’s win rate decreased 1% week-over-week, his pick rate increased 20%, and his ban rate increased by 52%.
In the number five slot of weekly losers, Cap was only brought down by a decrease in win rate and a relatively large rise in ban rate week-over-week. As a Captain America main myself, I’m having a great time this season, and the data clearly reinforces Cap being a great tank selection for the early season!
Marvel Rivals Top 5 Team-Ups (Weighted Scoring) - 4/25/25
Performing weighted scoring on Team Ups puts these Team Ups as the top 5 this week!
Guardian Revival
Despite a heavy-handed nerf to Adam Warlock, Guardian Revival remains the top-performing team-up in competitive play based on our weighted scoring system with a staggering 63.52% win rate. This team-up gives Mantis and Star-Lord an on-demand rez on cooldown that can shift team fights in your favor. This week, the team-up’s win rate increased a staggering 4%, its pick rate increased 6%, and its ban rate fell 48%. This is a diamond in the rough and is something to prioritize in character selection with your team if you want to win more games. Even better if you can practice and play consistently with a squad that can pull this off.
Ragnarok Rebirth
Ragnarok Rebirth is ranked #2 on our team-up list for the week. With a 62.43% win rate, it’s a clear performer even after adjustments to each of the heroes in the team-up. This week, Raganarok rebirth enjoyed a 2% increase in its win rate week-over-week, a 23% increase to pick rate, and a 16% decline in its ban rate, reflected in a drop in Hela’s ban rate across the board. This continues to be a strong option, and even without Voltaic Union, Thor can be complemented with either Captain America or Emma Frost to form a well-rounded and consistently-performing team.
Symbiote Bond
Spider-Man is very strong, and this team-up is pushing up his win-rate to new highs at 62.12%. Week-over-week, this team-up experienced a 4% increase in win rate, a 13% increase in pick rate, and only a 5% increase in ban rate. With a base 42.08% win rate, the delta between Venom and Venom + Spider-Man is enormous. Buffs to Peni Parker have made this team-up even more compelling. Spider-Man’s ban rate is increasing, and this team-up adds a lot of extra survivability to an already divisive character.
Storming Ignition
As mentioned earlier in the article, Storm is performing quite well. Pair that with an incredible team-up with Human Torch and you’re cooking with fire. This team-up is posting a 60.81% win rate, a 2.33% pick rate, and a 14.11% ban rate.
Storming Ignition was a big mover for the week. Week-over-week, this team-up’s win rate increased by 4%, its pick rate increased by 25%, and its ban rate increased a whopping 148%. Z-score analysis flagged this team-up as a statistical anomaly for the week, noting its weekly outperformance relative to all the other team-ups.
Gamma Charge (Iron Man)
Gamma Charge continues to be a powerful combo and is securing many wins on the ranked ladder. Bruce Banner is still a priority ban target in many games. Iron Man’s Gamma Charge team-up had a 60.23% win rate, 5.02% pick rate, and 29.12% ban rate for the week.
Week-over-week, Iron Man’s Gamma Charge win rate increased by 1%, its pick rate change increased by 31%, and its ban rate decreased by 4%. Namor’s team-up with Hulk is also performing incredibly well, so teams with a confident Hulk player can build a strong Vanguard + Duelist core to drastically improve your odds of winning in Competitive.
Wrap Up
That’s it for week two! We’ll continue to evaluate the meta and how it is evolving next week, keeping an eye out for top performers and rising synergies. There is so much insight to be found, and I’m hopeful the data from this week gives you some ideas of how you can capture an edge in your own competitive Marvel Rivals play!
What did you think about the second week of meta-analysis? Have any suggestions for the reporting going forward? Any metrics you’d like to see? Let us know in the comments below!
